Long-Term Trends in Herpes Zoster Incidence in China and Decomposition of Age-Period-Cohort Effects: An Empirical Analysis Based on the GBD Database and Joinpoint Regression Model

Abstract

This study focused on the long-term incidence trend of herpes zoster in China, using the Joinpoint regression model and the age-period-cohort (APC) effect decomposition method to analyze in detail the patterns of incidence changes and the underlying influencing factors. Based on data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database from 2000 to 2020, this study uses a multi-dimensional framework to deeply analyze the changes in the incidence of herpes zoster across different age groups, different periods, and different birth cohorts, thereby identifying the key time points and the associated socio-economic factors. The study found that the incidence of shingles has been fluctuating and is the result of the combined effects of age, period and cohort, with the period effect being particularly prominent in recent years. By comparing between regions and between urban and rural areas, it can be seen that there is an imbalance in the distribution of medical resources, which undoubtedly provides a basis for the prevention of the disease, the formulation of relevant policies and the rational allocation of resources. The research shows that strengthening early screening and promoting vaccination play important roles in controlling the prevalence of shingles. In the future development process, we can rely on the relevant data to improve the accuracy of the research and continue to expand the relevant research content.